Iran's Nuclear Program Against the Test of Time
Worldwide experts and high-ranking officials of the Israeli defense establishment led a special symposium on the nuclear agreement with Iran, organized by Israel Defense and the IICC. The overriding conclusion: the agreement is not as bad as we thought
IsraelDefense
| 23/03/2017
Photo: Bigstock
On the first anniversary of the nuclear agreement with Iran, a symposium presenting past and present experts and high-ranking officials of the Israeli defense establishment was conducted in the context of the "Intelligence Podium" produced by the Israeli Intelligence Commemoration Center (IICC) and Israel Defense.
The opening address was delivered by Brig. Gen. (res.) Amnon Sofrin, Head of IAI's Homeland Security Division: "The agreement signed includes an Iranian commitment to reduce the uranium enrichment level for a period of 15 years, to avoid construction of any additional enrichment facilities, to significantly reduce the number of active centrifuges, to disable the heavy water reactor at Arak and convert it into something else. Additionally, the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have free access to every facility in Iran at any time they may wish to gain such access, and surveillance cameras will be installed there for a period of 15 years. After Iran has complied with all of the above, all of the sanctions (mainly the economic sanctions) as well as the arms embargo imposed on it will be lifted gradually, and Iran's international status among the nations of the world would be reinstated. The agreement was implemented in January 2016 and according to the report by IAEA of May 2016, Iran has been complying with all of the obligations undertaken. The Iranians did reduce the number of centrifuges; they dismantled the core of the heavy water reactor in Arak, filled it with concrete and disabled it completely. They reduced the inventory of uranium in Iran to 300 kg. In fact, they are complying with everything prescribed by the agreement.
"What did the agreement fail to include? Two main things: a ban on the development of long-range missiles and a ban on support for terrorism. Two things that appear to be trivial, but are extremely important for Israel. Additionally, the agreement prescribed that Iran could experiment with centrifuges and they are doing that adjacent to the enrichment facility in Natanz, and that, too, will be restricted for a period of 15 years. Moreover, they can carry out uranium enrichment experiments but must deplete the uranium again and return it to the storage facilities so that it may not be used.
"The Iranians exploit the loopholes and continue to develop their missile capabilities. They have recently completed a trial of a missile to a range of 1,400 km. The Deputy Commander of the Iranian Guardians of the Revolution, in charge of the development of missile technologies in their operational layout, said that the missile in question is capable of hitting any point that threatens Iran… What have the superpowers done about those missile trials? They have formulated a letter asking Iran to avoid the development of such capabilities in the next 8 years. Iran responded by stating that the missiles were intended for defensive purposes and that Iran has no offensive intentions, although according to the data we are aware of, every such missile may carry a nuclear warhead.
"The Iranians have also exploited the loopholes in the agreement for the purpose of leveraging Iran's status within the Middle East, in two primary theaters. Firstly, Syria: Iran constitutes one of the three pillars that support Assad in Syria (the second pillar being Russia and the third pillar being Hezbollah). Naturally, the Iranians also sponsor Hezbollah. The second theater is the conflict in the Yemen: the Iranians support the Houthis against the Saudis and their coalition.
"Some reports in the USA indicated that following the implementation of the agreement, the Iranians and the Americans signed a secret agreement that includes 3 primary clauses: firstly, the Americans will drop the charges against 21 Iranian nationals and in return 4 American prisoners would be released. Secondly, Iranian assets frozen in the USA pursuant to the Iranian revolution will be returned to Iran. Thirdly, the USA will support the removal of the Iranian banks from the blacklist and allow them to engage in full financial activity.
"In effect, this agreement provided Iran with a significant economic boost. All of the major international corporations are lining up to sign business agreements with Iran, 250 business leaders along with the Prime Minister of Italy traveled to Iran and signed a series of agreements with Rouhani. The major aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus pledged to supply 170 new aircraft to the Iranian airlines, inflation has gone down and the local currency has stabilized. The West has come to do business in Iran. However, the USA has not lifted the bilateral sanctions imposed on Iran that are not associated with the nuclear aspect – mainly the financial activity in US Dollars. New legislation on the issue of the sanctions was to be completed by the end of the month and the US Congress decided to have it extended for another decade – a decision currently awaiting either sanctioning or vetoing.
"Meanwhile, Iran continues to support terrorism against Israel. In February of this year, the Iranian ambassador pledged that any Palestinian who executes a terrorist attack against Israel will be given a US$ 700 bonus and every family whose house has been demolished by the Israeli authorities will be given US$ 3,000.
"The signature of the agreement notwithstanding, Khamenei continues to speak about 'Death to America'. The Iranians keep several small conflicts with the Americans going just to maintain the tension and demonstrate to the Iranian people that their government had not yielded.
"The primary motive of Iran in signing the agreement is the economic aspect – and ending the isolation Iran has been experiencing in the Middle East. However, Iran has not been disarmed of all of her capabilities and the Iranians are preserving their know-how. The Americans estimated that all of the sanctions notwithstanding, within a year of making the decision, Iran would be able to emerge as a nuclear power," concluded Sofrin.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Nimrod Shefer, formerly an IAF squadron commander, Head of the Operations Department, airbase commander, Chief of the IAF Staff and Head of the IDF Planning Directorate:
"The official Israeli viewpoint regarding the agreement is, naturally, negative, but my viewpoint, which does not officially represent the viewpoint of the State of Israel, is that the agreement is good for us. As far as Israel is concerned, this agreement buys us a lot of time. The real question is what we do with that time. A year can be a long period of time or a short period of time, depending on what you do with that time. We should be very modest with our ambitions when we speak about foiling a program. The knowledge cannot be destroyed.
"Iran is a world power not only with regard to nuclear technology. Even after a decade of such severe sanctions, it still managed to be a member of the 'space club shortlist'. It launches satellites into outer space, their rate of progress is faster than ours as far as space launches are concerned – all during a very difficult decade, economically. The number of students in the engineering and sciences faculties in Iran has grown during the last decade more than the number of students in Israel, in the same subjects, in the last 30 years. In order to develop a nuclear program, it does not matter how many engineers you have relative to the size of the population, but simply how many engineers you have who possess the relevant knowledge.
"Violating an agreement is a very tricky and elusive thing. Obviously, if tomorrow they were to build another 20,000 centrifuges, this would amount to a blatant violation of the agreement, but if they used 5,060 centrifuges instead of 5,000 – would that be a violation of the agreement? Yes, but what's to be done about it? Should a world war be initiated over it? Should the World Bank stop giving them money? Should they be cut off the global clearing system? Probably not. A violation of the agreement will be a 'creeping' process. It will not be paraded in front of all of us.
"What does Israel have to do? First of all, we need to know what is actually going on within the Iranian nuclear program at any point in time, independently of IAEA. We need a robust monitoring system. The second stage is the decision-making process. We need to develop a structured decision-making system – who takes part in the decision-making process, who and what should be taken into consideration and so forth. The third stage involves the tools that would enable us to act against the nuclear program."
David Menashri, professor emeritus at the Middle Eastern & African History Department, Tel-Aviv University, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies and at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern & African Studies and an expert on Iran:
"How far will the Iranians go? As far as they would be allowed to go. They have reached a situation they had never dreamt about prior to the agreement. In 2013 Iran was on her knees. The Red Line drawn by President Obama was the employment of chemical weapons in Syria. Chemical weapons were employed in Syria and there was no American response. This definitely provided the Iranians with the legitimacy to raise their head. Khamenei is fair. He says that the chant 'Death to America' is still a part of the DNA of the Guardians of the Revolution. In fact, the revolutionary regime received the legitimacy and was recognized as a legitimate regime with whom an agreement could be drafted. The knowledge cannot be taken from Iran. Iran has evolved into a nuclear threshold state. The USA made a strategic change and Iran made a tactical change.
"There are some indications of a change but changing an economy like the Iranian economy is a prolonged process. The Iranian euphoria is premature. We are already seeing parts of the Iranian public who feel very badly about the expectations for economic improvement which has not been fulfilled yet as promised."
Sima Shine, formerly Head of the Analysis Division at the Mossad and Head of the Strategic Affairs Division at the National Security Council, subsequently appointed as Head of the Iran Division and Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Public Security:
"A year and a half after the agreement, I would say that the agreement has quite a few limitations, but that the agreement has taken Iran back. While previously they had 20,000 centrifuges deployed, now they have only 5,000 centrifuges and the others were dismantled. They had another facility with 1,000 enriching centrifuges, and it was demolished. This agreement is an accomplishment with regard to the aspect of lifting the economic sanctions, but it definitely had an adverse effect on the nuclear program. The Iranians considered their moves in a cool, calm and rational manner: they would be able to achieve the bomb later, but the sanctions must be lifted right now.
"The primary accomplishment of the agreement is the fact that if they decide to violate the agreement, it will take them a year to reach a bomb, which is a sufficient period of time for stopping them. Previously, the Americans maintain that they had been closer to a nuclear bomb – within a matter of months.
"Iran had been present in Syria even before the agreement was signed. Syria is a main link of primary importance to the Iranians. It is the route for providing assistance to Hezbollah and for establishing a resistance front against Israel and the USA. For this reason, the decision to have Hezbollah involved in Syria was an Iranian decision, and even though it was initially disliked by Hezbollah, it was clear that Assad on his own would not be enough. After it was realized that Hezbollah would not be enough either, The Iranians became more intensively involved and started recruiting Shi'ites, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis by the thousands. Today, they are the spearhead of military involvement on the ground inside Syrian territory. If it were not for the Russian involvement, Iran and Hezbollah on their own would not have succeeded in saving Bashar al-Assad. For this reason, we have recently witnessed an unusual move by Russia and Iran – a combined operation with the Russians in the air and the Iranians wearing the 'boots on the ground'.
"As far as the Iranians are concerned, with regard to the situation in the Middle East and their struggle, as the Shi'ite faction, against the Sunni faction led by Saudi Arabia, they have the upper hand. Iran knows how to exploit opportunities, how to identify fertile ground for promoting their interests. What's problematic about the agreement? Two primary issues that should concern Israel. The issue of the legitimacy granted to Iran about enriching uranium within its territory – enrichment is currently restricted but in a few years' time it would no longer be restricted. They are not allowed to produce bombs but they can do everything else, and that is the primary accomplishment for Iran. The second issue involves research and development. They can continue developing advanced centrifuges capable of enriching many times more than what their current centrifuge, which is an outdated model, can enrich. The implication is that in a few years' time they will have new and advanced models so they would not require many centrifuges or huge facilities in order to accomplish the same objective. That is why Israel is telling everyone that it is a bad agreement. The Americans failed to take advantage of their ability to press Iran from the vantage position they were in as opposed to the Iranians."
Worldwide experts and high-ranking officials of the Israeli defense establishment led a special symposium on the nuclear agreement with Iran, organized by Israel Defense and the IICC. The overriding conclusion: the agreement is not as bad as we thought
Photo: Bigstock
On the first anniversary of the nuclear agreement with Iran, a symposium presenting past and present experts and high-ranking officials of the Israeli defense establishment was conducted in the context of the "Intelligence Podium" produced by the Israeli Intelligence Commemoration Center (IICC) and Israel Defense.
The opening address was delivered by Brig. Gen. (res.) Amnon Sofrin, Head of IAI's Homeland Security Division: "The agreement signed includes an Iranian commitment to reduce the uranium enrichment level for a period of 15 years, to avoid construction of any additional enrichment facilities, to significantly reduce the number of active centrifuges, to disable the heavy water reactor at Arak and convert it into something else. Additionally, the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have free access to every facility in Iran at any time they may wish to gain such access, and surveillance cameras will be installed there for a period of 15 years. After Iran has complied with all of the above, all of the sanctions (mainly the economic sanctions) as well as the arms embargo imposed on it will be lifted gradually, and Iran's international status among the nations of the world would be reinstated. The agreement was implemented in January 2016 and according to the report by IAEA of May 2016, Iran has been complying with all of the obligations undertaken. The Iranians did reduce the number of centrifuges; they dismantled the core of the heavy water reactor in Arak, filled it with concrete and disabled it completely. They reduced the inventory of uranium in Iran to 300 kg. In fact, they are complying with everything prescribed by the agreement.
"What did the agreement fail to include? Two main things: a ban on the development of long-range missiles and a ban on support for terrorism. Two things that appear to be trivial, but are extremely important for Israel. Additionally, the agreement prescribed that Iran could experiment with centrifuges and they are doing that adjacent to the enrichment facility in Natanz, and that, too, will be restricted for a period of 15 years. Moreover, they can carry out uranium enrichment experiments but must deplete the uranium again and return it to the storage facilities so that it may not be used.
"The Iranians exploit the loopholes and continue to develop their missile capabilities. They have recently completed a trial of a missile to a range of 1,400 km. The Deputy Commander of the Iranian Guardians of the Revolution, in charge of the development of missile technologies in their operational layout, said that the missile in question is capable of hitting any point that threatens Iran… What have the superpowers done about those missile trials? They have formulated a letter asking Iran to avoid the development of such capabilities in the next 8 years. Iran responded by stating that the missiles were intended for defensive purposes and that Iran has no offensive intentions, although according to the data we are aware of, every such missile may carry a nuclear warhead.
"The Iranians have also exploited the loopholes in the agreement for the purpose of leveraging Iran's status within the Middle East, in two primary theaters. Firstly, Syria: Iran constitutes one of the three pillars that support Assad in Syria (the second pillar being Russia and the third pillar being Hezbollah). Naturally, the Iranians also sponsor Hezbollah. The second theater is the conflict in the Yemen: the Iranians support the Houthis against the Saudis and their coalition.
"Some reports in the USA indicated that following the implementation of the agreement, the Iranians and the Americans signed a secret agreement that includes 3 primary clauses: firstly, the Americans will drop the charges against 21 Iranian nationals and in return 4 American prisoners would be released. Secondly, Iranian assets frozen in the USA pursuant to the Iranian revolution will be returned to Iran. Thirdly, the USA will support the removal of the Iranian banks from the blacklist and allow them to engage in full financial activity.
"In effect, this agreement provided Iran with a significant economic boost. All of the major international corporations are lining up to sign business agreements with Iran, 250 business leaders along with the Prime Minister of Italy traveled to Iran and signed a series of agreements with Rouhani. The major aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus pledged to supply 170 new aircraft to the Iranian airlines, inflation has gone down and the local currency has stabilized. The West has come to do business in Iran. However, the USA has not lifted the bilateral sanctions imposed on Iran that are not associated with the nuclear aspect – mainly the financial activity in US Dollars. New legislation on the issue of the sanctions was to be completed by the end of the month and the US Congress decided to have it extended for another decade – a decision currently awaiting either sanctioning or vetoing.
"Meanwhile, Iran continues to support terrorism against Israel. In February of this year, the Iranian ambassador pledged that any Palestinian who executes a terrorist attack against Israel will be given a US$ 700 bonus and every family whose house has been demolished by the Israeli authorities will be given US$ 3,000.
"The signature of the agreement notwithstanding, Khamenei continues to speak about 'Death to America'. The Iranians keep several small conflicts with the Americans going just to maintain the tension and demonstrate to the Iranian people that their government had not yielded.
"The primary motive of Iran in signing the agreement is the economic aspect – and ending the isolation Iran has been experiencing in the Middle East. However, Iran has not been disarmed of all of her capabilities and the Iranians are preserving their know-how. The Americans estimated that all of the sanctions notwithstanding, within a year of making the decision, Iran would be able to emerge as a nuclear power," concluded Sofrin.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Nimrod Shefer, formerly an IAF squadron commander, Head of the Operations Department, airbase commander, Chief of the IAF Staff and Head of the IDF Planning Directorate:
"The official Israeli viewpoint regarding the agreement is, naturally, negative, but my viewpoint, which does not officially represent the viewpoint of the State of Israel, is that the agreement is good for us. As far as Israel is concerned, this agreement buys us a lot of time. The real question is what we do with that time. A year can be a long period of time or a short period of time, depending on what you do with that time. We should be very modest with our ambitions when we speak about foiling a program. The knowledge cannot be destroyed.
"Iran is a world power not only with regard to nuclear technology. Even after a decade of such severe sanctions, it still managed to be a member of the 'space club shortlist'. It launches satellites into outer space, their rate of progress is faster than ours as far as space launches are concerned – all during a very difficult decade, economically. The number of students in the engineering and sciences faculties in Iran has grown during the last decade more than the number of students in Israel, in the same subjects, in the last 30 years. In order to develop a nuclear program, it does not matter how many engineers you have relative to the size of the population, but simply how many engineers you have who possess the relevant knowledge.
"Violating an agreement is a very tricky and elusive thing. Obviously, if tomorrow they were to build another 20,000 centrifuges, this would amount to a blatant violation of the agreement, but if they used 5,060 centrifuges instead of 5,000 – would that be a violation of the agreement? Yes, but what's to be done about it? Should a world war be initiated over it? Should the World Bank stop giving them money? Should they be cut off the global clearing system? Probably not. A violation of the agreement will be a 'creeping' process. It will not be paraded in front of all of us.
"What does Israel have to do? First of all, we need to know what is actually going on within the Iranian nuclear program at any point in time, independently of IAEA. We need a robust monitoring system. The second stage is the decision-making process. We need to develop a structured decision-making system – who takes part in the decision-making process, who and what should be taken into consideration and so forth. The third stage involves the tools that would enable us to act against the nuclear program."
David Menashri, professor emeritus at the Middle Eastern & African History Department, Tel-Aviv University, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies and at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern & African Studies and an expert on Iran:
"How far will the Iranians go? As far as they would be allowed to go. They have reached a situation they had never dreamt about prior to the agreement. In 2013 Iran was on her knees. The Red Line drawn by President Obama was the employment of chemical weapons in Syria. Chemical weapons were employed in Syria and there was no American response. This definitely provided the Iranians with the legitimacy to raise their head. Khamenei is fair. He says that the chant 'Death to America' is still a part of the DNA of the Guardians of the Revolution. In fact, the revolutionary regime received the legitimacy and was recognized as a legitimate regime with whom an agreement could be drafted. The knowledge cannot be taken from Iran. Iran has evolved into a nuclear threshold state. The USA made a strategic change and Iran made a tactical change.
"There are some indications of a change but changing an economy like the Iranian economy is a prolonged process. The Iranian euphoria is premature. We are already seeing parts of the Iranian public who feel very badly about the expectations for economic improvement which has not been fulfilled yet as promised."
Sima Shine, formerly Head of the Analysis Division at the Mossad and Head of the Strategic Affairs Division at the National Security Council, subsequently appointed as Head of the Iran Division and Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Public Security:
"A year and a half after the agreement, I would say that the agreement has quite a few limitations, but that the agreement has taken Iran back. While previously they had 20,000 centrifuges deployed, now they have only 5,000 centrifuges and the others were dismantled. They had another facility with 1,000 enriching centrifuges, and it was demolished. This agreement is an accomplishment with regard to the aspect of lifting the economic sanctions, but it definitely had an adverse effect on the nuclear program. The Iranians considered their moves in a cool, calm and rational manner: they would be able to achieve the bomb later, but the sanctions must be lifted right now.
"The primary accomplishment of the agreement is the fact that if they decide to violate the agreement, it will take them a year to reach a bomb, which is a sufficient period of time for stopping them. Previously, the Americans maintain that they had been closer to a nuclear bomb – within a matter of months.
"Iran had been present in Syria even before the agreement was signed. Syria is a main link of primary importance to the Iranians. It is the route for providing assistance to Hezbollah and for establishing a resistance front against Israel and the USA. For this reason, the decision to have Hezbollah involved in Syria was an Iranian decision, and even though it was initially disliked by Hezbollah, it was clear that Assad on his own would not be enough. After it was realized that Hezbollah would not be enough either, The Iranians became more intensively involved and started recruiting Shi'ites, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis by the thousands. Today, they are the spearhead of military involvement on the ground inside Syrian territory. If it were not for the Russian involvement, Iran and Hezbollah on their own would not have succeeded in saving Bashar al-Assad. For this reason, we have recently witnessed an unusual move by Russia and Iran – a combined operation with the Russians in the air and the Iranians wearing the 'boots on the ground'.
"As far as the Iranians are concerned, with regard to the situation in the Middle East and their struggle, as the Shi'ite faction, against the Sunni faction led by Saudi Arabia, they have the upper hand. Iran knows how to exploit opportunities, how to identify fertile ground for promoting their interests. What's problematic about the agreement? Two primary issues that should concern Israel. The issue of the legitimacy granted to Iran about enriching uranium within its territory – enrichment is currently restricted but in a few years' time it would no longer be restricted. They are not allowed to produce bombs but they can do everything else, and that is the primary accomplishment for Iran. The second issue involves research and development. They can continue developing advanced centrifuges capable of enriching many times more than what their current centrifuge, which is an outdated model, can enrich. The implication is that in a few years' time they will have new and advanced models so they would not require many centrifuges or huge facilities in order to accomplish the same objective. That is why Israel is telling everyone that it is a bad agreement. The Americans failed to take advantage of their ability to press Iran from the vantage position they were in as opposed to the Iranians."
