What to Expect from Trump's Foreign Policy

Donald Trump has frequently reiterated that in the Middle East, it is better to have powerful men than chaos. Prof. Giancarlo Elia Valori examines the President-elect's views on the Middle East, as well as his approach to NATO and the European Union

What to Expect from Trump's Foreign Policy

President-elect Donald Trump and Mitt Romney, who is being considered for US Secretary of State (Photo: AP)

In principle, Donald Trump thinks that the NATO and non-NATO traditional allies of the United States are free riders, namely fully autonomous decision-makers which accept the US military support but then do their own way, at least in foreign policy.

Donald Trump does not want to pay billions of dollars to protect US friendly nations which, on their part, do not spend the amount required for their own defense.

He is not entirely wrong since currently, the United States still bear 73% of NATO’s total cost, although it is worth noting that they manipulate and use most of the Allies’ defense potential for their own purposes.

During the election campaign, Donald Trump has often said that the 28 NATO Member States do not pay their "fair share" and that the Atlantic Alliance is "obsolete" because it has not been focused on the rogue countries’ terrorism.

We believe this stance by Donald Trump is technically wrong since the Alliance has often favored, with irrational operations, the Middle East regime change and the current encirclement of Russia, which Trump has promised to downsize on its European border. All US interests, certainly not EU ones.

With specific reference to Europe, Donald Trump’s line is to check the support and the possibility of reaching agreements – also at a military level – for each NATO country.

In Brief, Europe’s relying fully on the United States is an objectively outdated behavior, though not yet in the minds of EU decision-makers.

In fact, the "mutual" agreement with the winners of the Second World War has long been over.

After all, Donald Trump evaluates the European Union indirectly, according to what he said on "Brexit" to support it: borders are natural and necessary.

People want to see borders – and here we can recall Carl Schmitt with his theory whereby modern liberal States have scarce "political" awareness because they have too many fluid borders.

I think that the future negotiations between a Europe in crisis and Trump’s USA, which has no interest in managing relations with EU technocrats, will be hard.

Furthermore, Trump does no longer reason as his predecessors, who regarded the EU as a natural ally of the United States and even an imitation of the US federal model.

"Worst Deal Ever"

Again, in contrast with the “old-style Europe,” he does not even accept the JCPOA, namely the nuclear treaty with Iran. He does not believe in it, and he thinks it has been reached by negotiators lacking a clear perception of their interests, who got carried away by the Kantian myth of perpetual peace.

Trump deems it the "worst deal ever" and hence the worst danger to US security in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

The reason is that – thanks to this nuclear deal, which, as Trump rightly thinks, does not put a stop to the Iranian strategic aims – the Shiite republic can become the dominant system in the whole Middle East. According to the President-elect, the United States will again impose sanctions on Iran.

Donald Trump’s United States will never leave the Middle East, which is the axis of its expansion in the oil system and the periphery of the Russian region.

Indeed, Trump thinks of a serious mediation between Israeli and Palestinians – as those carried out in the real estate sector, as he said ironically in a recent interview.

Nevertheless, in this case, the issue will lie in resorting to "tough negotiators instead of naïve academics," to use Trump’s words. So far, however, the US negotiators have been mostly politicians and not professors.

In Trump’s opinion, professional diplomats are too focused on the nuances rather on the substance of negotiations, and in his opinion, persuasion – rather than power – characterizes diplomacy at its best.

The President-elect also maintains he has to improve the relations with Israel, which Barack Obama had led to an all-time low. Israel is the essential friend to make the whole Middle East safe.

It is by no mere coincidence that, during the election campaign, Trump spoke in favor of the US Embassy transfer from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, so as to publicly and officially support Israel’s policy vis-à-vis the Territories.

Trump wants to rebuild good relations with the Jewish State because he still deems it the fundamental and indispensable US link in the Middle East.

Gone are the days when Saudi Arabia funded 20% of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, and the same holds true for the Saudi support to McCain and Bush senior and junior, as well as the Qatari funds to Bill Clinton and his Foundation. By the way, the Clintons were well aware that Saudi Arabia and Qatar lavishly funded the ISIS Caliphate.

Not to mention the support provided by Obama to the "radical" Islamic world – which would have been even expanded by Hillary Clinton, if she had won the presidential elections – as well as to the jihadists fighting the tyrant Bashar al-Assad.

With the risk – which has already materialized – of making CIA and the State Department train a brigade of so-called "moderate" jihadists against Assad-led Syria who, soon after being armed and paid by the United States, went to wage their war in Al Baghdadi’s Caliphate.

The ambiguous role played by the United States in Syria will no longer be so: Trump wants Russia to defeat ISIS in Syria on its own, and he also wants Germany alone to keep Ukraine.

Trump does not want to repeat the mistakes of the universal "fight against tyrants" and the exporting of democracy everywhere. He wants to reaffirm the US real interests and establish good relations in all the other areas.

NATO is not against Russia, as he has repeatedly said during the election campaign.

As Trump has frequently reiterated, in the Middle East, it is better to have powerful men than chaos. Perhaps it is even better to have Bashar al-Assad with the Russian support than the systematic disaster of the endless more or less “moderate” jihadist groups which, by destroying that country, will lead to a very dangerous void in the whole Middle East.

Stopping North Korea’s Nuclear Military Race

With specific reference to China, Donald Trump maintains that it should settle the North Korean issue. The President-elect sees two options in this regard: US-North Korean negotiations and hard pressures on China to stop North Korea’s nuclear military race.

China fears the protectionist drift to which Trump’s economic policy may lead.

On the other hand, China is glad that the US President is a businessman who does not bother about "human rights."

However, it fears Trump’s position on freedom of the seas in Asia, while Xi Jinping has soon proposed to the US President-elect comprehensive bilateral cooperation on all issues.

The traditional US alliance with Japan will be strengthened, and even Duterte’s Philippines will have the opportunity of cooperating with the new United States.

In all likelihood, the worst will materialize with the old, and now powerless, European Union.

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