Donald Trump is Good for (Israel's) National Security

Amir Rapaport in a special column following the surprising election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States: How will this affect Israel's security, the US aid agreement, the Palestinians and the JCPOA agreement with Iran?

Donald Trump is Good for (Israel's) National Security

Photo: AP

Last month, during a visit to Israel, Rudolph Giuliani asked for a meeting with the top management of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

Giuliani is known as the mythological former mayor of New York City and as a close associate of US President Elect Donald Trump. He was the most prominent American politician who supported Trump throughout his campaign.

The senior executives of Rafael intended to invite Giuliani to dine at a well-known prestigious restaurant, but he preferred Hummus and kebabs, and so the party ended up at a local kebab restaurant in Kfar-Sava. The meeting was not about Giuliani's current activity, cyber security. This prominent republican leader had asked for this meeting in order to personally thank the people of Rafael for the development of the Iron Dome system which made a significant contribution to Israel's national security. Giuliani's hosts awarded him with a scale model of the system, and he was actually moved to tears. The meeting was closed to the press, so we are unable to quote Giuliani's warm address and kind words regarding his connection with Israel and the importance he assigns to Israel's security.

Is this important? According to reports in the USA, Giuliani is expected to be appointed to the position of Attorney General – not Secretary of Defense, but the story is indicative of how different the new administration will be, attitude-wise, compared to the Obama administration.

Here is another example: the most likely candidate for the position of US Ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, is the President of American Friends of Bet-El Institutions.

Apparently, these details have nothing to do with Israel's national security, as the Obama administration never renounced Israel's security. Obama was generous in the funding provided for the Iron Dome project and during his tenure, the intelligence and strategic dialog between the two countries was correct and solid.

At the same time, this change of approach could have two primary effects on Israel's national security.

US Aid

A new, ten-year US Aid agreement has been signed last July. Although the agreement has already been finalized and signed, there is a reasonable chance that the next administration will be more attentive to Israel's requests for certain cutting-edge technologies the Obama administration had refused to provide it with, in addition to the financial scope of the agreement. The restrictions initiated by the previous administration and imposed on the manner in which specific parts of the US Aid funds may be spent for purchasing (using ILS) from the Israeli defense industries may be slackened. Most importantly, the support of the new administration for Israel will be more reliable than that of the previous administration. A situation such as the one where the State Department prevented the airlifting of much-needed ammunition from the USA to Israel during Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014 is not likely to recur.

Deterrence & the Iranian Nuclear Project

The Trump administration will be regarded as more deterring in the eyes of Muslim terrorist organization and particularly in the eyes of Iran, which is expected to violate the nuclear agreement sooner or later. If it turns out that the Iranians are striving for the bomb despite the agreement, the American response will, presumably, be more drastic and less diplomatic than anything that could be expected from the Obama administration or, for that matter, from a new administration under Hillary Clinton.

The bottom line: US defense support for Israel does not depend on the identity of the ruling party but rather on the widespread support of the American public. Sources at the Israeli embassy in Washington stated last week, with satisfaction, that even after the eight years of Obama's presidency, support for Israel currently stands at not less than 60%, compared to 18% support for the Palestinians.

For this reason, a massive effort is being invested in an attempt to preserve the widespread popular American support for Israel.

At the same time, the warm feelings of the new administration toward Israel, as opposed to the hostility (or correctness) of President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, will have a significant effect on Israel's strategic position in the region.

Now, the major power players in the region will estimate that the US commitment to Israel is unreserved and that the way to reach the heart of the US government in Washington once again passes through Jerusalem.

But there are risks, too: Trump adheres to a policy according to which American interests come before anything else. He is unpredictable and may also decide that the Middle East is of no interest whatsoever to the USA. On the face of it, however, it seems that the prospects – as far as the Israeli defense establishment is concerned – outweigh the risks.