Playing Chess in a Backgammon Atmosphere

Brig. Gen. (Res.) Nitzan Nuriel believes the State of Israel must understand that players in the Middle East are all looking at the manner in which it conducts itself during Operation Protective EdgeOne cannot play chess following rules of backgammon

Playing Chess in a Backgammon Atmosphere

Two nights ago, shortly after midnight, I sat down to write this column on Operation Protective Edge, while I comprehend the Israeli government (the Cabinet) cannot negatively respond the proposed ceasefire, therefore I did not hold my breath for the Cabinet meeting the next morning.

In the same manner, I figured there was no way that Hamas will accept the Egyptian mediation offer. The words that flowed like water, both for and against the ceasefire, seemed as venting, with a very small degree of influence, since we (the State of Israel) are playing chess while in our region everything is conducting in a backgammon atmosphere.

You cannot play chess while following rules of backgammon.

We are a stubborn (which is good) and impatient (very bad) people... There is an expectation that we will be able to solve in 7-8 days a problem that is practically unsolvable at all.

Hamas is a terrorist organization! Its existential purpose is the preservation and use of terrorism against Israel. By the way, they are not the only ones, and these words are also true for Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Global Jihad, and more. Ensuring that what has happened – will happen again, and the only thing we can influence is our stamina alongside our operational capability to collect high prices from the enemy, which will cause the periods between confrontations to widen.

Hamas is at its lowest point ever: very financially tangled, it has no significant factor to lean on (except for Turkey that will still give us a lot of trouble), its military capabilities are severely injured (although it still has the undisputed rocket-launching ability) and its resilience is negligible in view of the Egyptian efficient prevention of smuggling.

Therefore the conclusion is twofold: on the one hand, it cannot accept the proposed ceasefire because it marks its end as a terrorist organization, and even puts into question the continuity of its ability to control the region, in which it may have lost the support of its subjects in view of the results of the operation so far. On the other hand, there is no escape from continuing the application of pressure on it, until its overthrow and replacement by a more moderate Palestinian element.

The address is Abu Mazen, who unfortunately, like most of the Palestinian leadership, tends not to take responsibility for his people (to those claiming that Abu Mazen will not be able to take on Gaza from the hands of Israel, I will argue that the right thing to do, at the end of the operation, is to insert a European or an Arab power that will hand over the territory through a "Marshall Plan" into the hands of Abu Mazen).

To those who claim that Gaza will fall into the hands of jihadists from the "school of al-Qaeda", I will answer – do not try to intimidate us! There is not much difference between the acts of Hamas in recent years and the potential behavior of jihadist factors. What can they do that Hamas did not? Where will they draw their power and means from in case the Egyptians will persist in their activities to prevent smuggling and Israel will persist with the blockade of the Gaza Strip?

We are entering the "if" zone. If ultimately a ceasefire will be stabilized, one that has the power to create a better reality over time (for a few years), and if Operation Protective Edge will be continued, than we could lay the groundwork for a better situation in which a significant Palestinian authority will be stabilized and govern the regions of Judea and Samaria and Gaza, an authority which will require Israel to make progress towards a political solution (and perhaps it is in itself threatens some elements of Israeli politics).

And my final comment – additional factors are looking with attention at this fighting round, first and foremost the Hezbollah. I do not pretend to know what lessons they prescribe for themselves. We must leverage the processes and the results so far of Operation Protective Edge so that the residents of Lebanon will know full well what would happen to them if and when a third Lebanon war will break out (and I am one of those who believes the third Lebanon war is only a matter of time).

The message from Gaza must permeate to every home in Lebanon hiding rockets or other means. The price paid in Gaza must influence the public opinion in Lebanon to undermine Hezbollah's statues. It is essential to strengthen this effort.