May the Last Year of Terrorist Attacks End and a New Year of Operations Begin

The security challenges faced by Israel and the western world are only becoming more severe. Lior Ackerman, formerly a senior ISA officer, with a not-so-optimistic forecast for the coming year

May the Last Year of Terrorist Attacks End and a New Year of Operations Begin

The year 2015 did not bode well for the world and for Israel as far as security and terrorism were concerned. In Israel and in the territories we have witnessed a steady and methodical increase in the scope of terrorist attacks and public disorder over the last three years. Leading the scale of incidents and attacks was, naturally, Jerusalem, where, over the last three years, hundreds of terrorist attacks were recorded every year. Over the last year, the situation has gradually deteriorated. Hundreds of public disorder incidents, stone throwing and Molotov cocktail attacks against the Jerusalem light railway and Israeli security forces, vehicle ramming and stabbing attacks and riots on Temple Mount against the background of incessant incitement on the part of Abu Mazen and the other leaders of the Palestinian Authority, as well as on the part of Arab Members of Knesset and the leaders of the Islamic Movement's Northern Faction headed by Sheik Raed Salah.

The dramatic change took place during the second half of 2015, particularly as of last September. The scope of the Palestinian incitement against Israel's activities on Temple Mount led to the outbreak of riots and agitated the entire region. Palestinians started initiating vehicle ramming and stabbing attacks in the Judea and Samaria territories, the number of attacks increased significantly and for the first time, an Israeli civilian was killed as a result of a stone-throwing attack against his vehicle in Jerusalem. The firebombing of the home of the Dawabsheh family in the Arab village of Duma and the failure of the Israeli authorities to crack that case led to intensive agitation on the ground, which was further inflamed by wild, unrestrained Palestinian incitement.

The incitement by Abu Mazen and the leaders of the Palestinian organizations fell on attentive ears within the Palestinian Authority, in the absence of any diplomatic process or proposals for the resolution of the crisis between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The discussion as to whether a Palestinian Intifada is already under way has become irrelevant over the last quarter. The frustration and despair of the Palestinians, combined with such additional elements as incitement, the absence of a diplomatic process, inflammatory propaganda by the terrorist organizations, and the significant decline in Israeli deterrence owing to the absence of any offensive initiative while the Israeli forces are concentrating on proportionate, restricted responses – all of these factors have led individuals within the Palestinian public to go out and initiate stabbing, vehicle ramming and stone-throwing attacks on a constantly growing scale. Data provided by ISA and several other organizations indicate that during the last quarter of the year, more than 2,000 different incidents and terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israelis were recorded. The number of Israeli victims of terrorism has reached 20 at the time these lines were written. The Intifada has become a fait accompli although its characteristics differ from those we had known in the past.

This time, the initiative of staging terrorist activities has been delegated to the individuals, the unorganized elements, those who leave their homes in the morning carrying a knife or a rock or driving a vehicle and decide to kill Jews. Individuals who are frustrated against a personal, family or national background vent their anger by attacking the nearest Jew. With a single thrust of their knife, those individuals manage to advance from the status of the oppressed victims of a life of failure to the status of revered heroes of the Palestinian people, glorified for their action and courage.

During the latter part of the last year, as in previous occasions, the Israeli government failed to come up with a long-term strategy for fighting the terrorist organizations, for stopping the terror of the individuals, for striking at the capabilities of Hezbollah or ISIS and weakening the rule of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The implication was a series of shallow, measured Israeli responses that were interpreted by the potential terrorists as an indication of weakness and as encouragement to go out and initiate additional attacks, after they were already encouraged by the successful attacks of the terrorists that had preceded them.

The result – which was rather predictable, I might say – was an intensification of the surge of terrorist attacks. In October, attacks utilizing firearms began throughout the Samaria district and subsequently within the "Green Line" boundaries as well.

The Regional Arena Fared No Better

Admittedly, the Hamas organization in the Gaza Strip sustained a certain blow during Operation Protective Edge – but that blow was not sufficiently severe to eliminate its potential. The organization has maintained a state of relative tranquility over the last year, owing to its interest in maintaining its reconstructive capabilities and accumulating an arsenal in preparation for the next round it plans against Israel. At the same time, they are preparing for an attempted coup against the Palestinian Authority in the Judea and Samaria territories. In the absence of any offensive action on the part of Hamas, the Israeli government, as expected, avoided any additional activities against this organization. Even a diplomatic initiative to organize all of the countries in the region that oppose the activities of Hamas failed to materialize, and the organization continues to build up its strength.

Across the border, Hezbollah, representing the Shi'ite-Iranian terrorism, enjoys complete freedom of operation in Lebanon. No element whatsoever interferes with this organization's continued build-up of power and arming in preparation for the next confrontation opposite Israel. Over the last year, Hezbollah warfighters were mainly engaged in fighting against the major enemy from the east, ISIS, which had dominated substantial territories in Syria and Iraq while facing no serious challenges. ISIS succeeded in taking over oil fields and major cities and convert its conquests into a financial growth engine for its continued activity. On the other hand, the western countries, as usual, failed to identify the threat this organization represents, reasoning that it was just another manifestation of terrorism confined to the Middle East which does not concern them. The massive waves of immigrants pouring into Europe did not cause the Europeans to change their minds. Even a series of terrorist attacks that took place over the last year in Scandinavia and France failed to bring about a change in their concept regarding the prevention of Islamic terrorism. The inevitable result materialized last November in the form of a series of mass murder attacks executed by ISIS terrorists in the heart of Paris and the bombing of the Russian passenger aircraft over the Sinai. Even after the last atrocity, the western countries have not found the courage to aggravate and escalate the military moves and punitive measures against ISIS. A combination of weak leaderships, an absence of leadership courage and misunderstanding of the situation led the USA and the European countries to ignore the severity of the situation and resort to the mistaken concept according to which the ISIS terrorism may be contained through air strikes alone.

This year comes to an end with dozens of Israeli nationals having been killed by terrorists within and outside the Green Line boundaries and with hundreds of European and other nationals killed worldwide, but the world is still unable to provide an effective solution to the threat it faces.

Let a New Year of Operations Begin

What does the year 2016 have in store for us? When one examines the situation and the conduct of the State of Israel and the entire world in the face of Islamic and Palestinian terrorism, it is difficult to be optimistic. For the first time in modern history, the French government took drastic and irregular measures pursuant to the series of atrocious attacks France has sustained in Paris, while declaring a nation-wide state of emergency for a period of several months.

In the past, the Americans had to experience the 9/11 attacks in order to go through the traumatic process that caused them to change their intelligence and preventive concepts and develop the homeland security concept that has been implemented since then with relative success.

The French have come to understand the situation only now, and subject to their emergency ordinances they are introducing dramatic changes to their constitution by restricting personal liberties and enhancing the authority and capabilities of their security and law enforcement agencies and by authorizing them to engage in the intelligence gathering and preventive activities that are essential to preventing the recurrence of terrorist attacks of this type. Apparently, the other European countries have not yet internalized the severity of the threat facing them and have not yet decided to revise the principles of their legislature and counterterrorism policies. The practical implication of this state of affairs is that ISIS can still operate almost freely in some European countries.

More surprising, however, is the fact that the government of Israel, which is thoroughly familiar with the threat and has been engaged in a constant struggle against Islamic terrorism for many years, fails to internalize the severity of the threat, fails to develop a long-term strategy for coping with it and makes no attempt to change world order in order to stop the current surge of terrorism and prevent the future ones.

Here in Israel, the IDF and ISA are very good at what they do. Many terrorist cells and detachments are being uncovered and eliminated before they become operational. When a decisive blow is required, the IDF is perfectly capable of delivering it. The problem is the policy, or more precisely – the lack thereof.

Surprisingly, the characteristics of Israel's current operations against terrorism are more similar to those of the European operations: languid legislation and lenient punishment, lack of determination and courage in the fight against terrorism, preferring talk over action, a complete absence of initiative with regard to the diplomatic aspect as well as with regard to the security aspect and focusing strictly on responses that are carefully measured, proportionate, weak and lack any element of deterrence. When all of these characteristics stand against the background of the absence of any diplomatic progress or hope, the inevitable result is an escalation and aggravation of the situation.

Islamic terrorism, be it Sunni or Shi'ite, knows no boundaries. Islamic terrorism does not have diplomatic or political goals and its tactics are not restricted by time or any rational limitations. The objective, which is based on a messianic, divine vision, is the establishment of a global Islamic caliphate to which the members of all the other religions will be subordinated. This vision will not stop at any geographic border, nor will it be blocked by threats and declarations. If the world, including the State of Israel, still wants to save itself before it is too late, now is the time for change. The year 2016 must be a year of change in the way the world addresses Islamic terrorism. What we all need is powerful, determined and tenacious fighting, in the air and on the ground, an intelligence effort assisted by strict legislation and enhanced deterrence; a transition to an emergency policy, enforcement of emergency ordinances and the use of emergency statutes that enable the state to violate personal liberties for the common good. As they say, in the jungle, only the rules of the jungle apply. 

Lior Ackerman is a former senior officer of ISA, who served as ISA Chief of Staff. 

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